Apex, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

669
FXUS62 KRAH 270139
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
939 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong ridge of high pressure will extend over the Mid Atlantic
through the rest of the week, then slowly shift offshore toward
Bermuda over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 935 PM Thursday...

Isolated cells may continue to pulse for a couple of more hours
along both an outflow boundary and surface trough that extend in
close proximity across the ne Piedmont near HNZ swd and through the
Sandhills, within an axis of lingering moderate MLCAPE but gradually
increasing CINH from nocturnal, boundary layer cooling. Skies will
be clear otherwise and elsewhere, with continued unseasonably warm
and muggy low temperatures in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...

* Continued Hot with Heat Index Values in the upper 90s to lower
  100s.

* Chance of isolated severe storms, primarily in the western and
  south central Piedmont.

The ridge that has persisted for several days over the Carolinas
will shift ever so slightly eastward as a weakening mid-level
circulation center off the Florida and Southeast US coast moves
onshore.  This will cause temperatures to drop slightly, from lower
to mid 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s, falling
shy of advisory criteria.

Focused terrain induced differential heating and weak convergence
along a lee-side sfc trough across western NC, a moist and very
unstable airmass will support the development of isolated(eastern
NC) to scattered showers and storms(western NC) Friday afternoon and
evening. Weak shear will keep the threat of organized severe storms
low. As a result of this, there will be a chance of isolated strong
to severe pulse type thunderstorms throughout the Piedmont but
especially towards the western and southern areas. Due to weak
steering from mid-upper level winds, these storms will be slow
moving and meandering. Any significant movement will be a result of
outflow boundary re-triggering. The continued presence of high D-
CAPE values (1200-1700 J/KG) will foster a favorable environment for
locally damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms.

Convection will diminish throughout the Piedmont overnight with the
western Piedmont being the last to cease. Overnight lows in the
lower 70s and dew points persisting in the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 PM Thursday...

* Hot and humid through the weekend with afternoon storm chances.

* Temperatures trend toward normal early next week with increasing
  chances of storms Tuesday and Wednesday.

Weak upper level anti-cyclonic flow will persist over head on Sunday
as the weak upper low to our southwest meanders over GA/SC. Forcing
for convection will mainly be from diurnal influences and left-over
outflow aided by moderate to strong CAPE given that the local
airmass will not change much through the weekend.  Daily highs will
be in the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
This results in heat indices below heat advisory criteria but still
elevated in the upper 90s and lower 100s.  Fairly climatological
POPs both days in the 25-35 ranges, with slow moving storms capable
damaging winds and locally heavy downpours with PW in the 1.5-2 inch
range.

Monday onward the mid and upper level flow becomes a little more
dominated by shortwaves crossing the northern US and the overall
pattern trends to troughing over the eastern US.  A weak cold front
is forecast to move into the OH Valley region by Tue/Wed, and while
it is uncertain if or how quickly it moves into NC, there will be
more Piedmont troughing in the afternoon and mid-level flow to move
storms over the mountains by Tue/Wed, when POPs should likely be
maximized areawide in the forecast period.  Highs will trend more
toward normal as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 820 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions should mostly prevail at all TAF sites for the next
24 hours. Currently, a few showers/storms are located in western
portions of the CWA, with the best chance for sub-VFR restrictions
at RDU. After we lose instability when the sun goes down, shower
chances should decrease dramatically. Late tonight/early Friday
morning there are low chances of fog development, fog prone areas
such as RWI have the best chance, however some guidance shows lower
visibilities in the Triad. Friday afternoon into the evening,
scattered showers and storms are possible at all TAF sites. Exact
timing and location are still unclear, but chances look to be best
in the western terminals.

Outlook: A daily pattern of diurnally driven convection and patchy
early morning fog is expected through early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Daily High Minimum Temperatures...

             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville

June 26      77 (2024)      74 (2010)       76 (1997)
June 27      76 (1952)      76 (1969)       77 (1998)
June 28      76 (1952)      76 (1969)       78 (1914)
June 29      78 (1914)      74 (2024)       76 (1969)
June 30      80 (1936)      77 (2024)       79 (1936)

Record Daily Maximum Temperatures...

             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville

June 26      103 (2024)      102 (1914)     101 (1951)
June 27      104 (1954)      102 (1954)     102 (1998)
June 28      100 (1959)       99 (1959)     105 (1954)
June 29      105 (2012)      102 (2012)     106 (2012)
June 30      105 (2012)      101 (1959)     102 (2012)

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL/Skari
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...Helock/CBL
CLIMATE...RAH